Posted by
ChrisR on Tuesday, May 20, 2008 3:23:43 PM
Well, I guess not ALL baseball, but close.
First, the non-baseball information:
the Idol final is on tonight.
And that's it.
Now, the important issue at hand. Baseball.
Today I want to do quarter-report. An analysis of my predictions so far, and some other issues.
The first issue is that stupid Joba Chamberlain first pump from a week or two ago. I thought it was stupid, but whatever. Tim Kurkjian, who I normally like, wrote a column about the first pump and how it has become a show-boat, me-first society in baseball, much the way it is in football. That's fine - he is entitled to his opinion and I don't necessarily disagree with that. What I do disagree with, however, is his choice of players to interview about playing the game "the right way:" Luis Gonzalez and Aaron Boone. Just take a look at these numbers.
Boone 2002: 162 games, 83 runs, 146 hits, 26 HR, 87 RBI.
Best Boone Numbers from the rest of his 11 sesaon career: 143 games, 61 runs, 124 hits, 18 HR, 62 RBI.
Gonzalez 2001: 57 HR, 142 RBI, .325 Avg, .429 OBP, .688 SLG, 1.117 OPS
Best Gonzalez Numbers from the rest of his 18 year career: 31 HR, 114 RBI, .336 avg, .403 OBP, .549 SLG, .952 OPS
Now, normally I would say "wow, career years for both guys" - Gonzo's happened at age 33, Boone's at age 29. This isn't necessarily unreasonable. Except that both occurred during the mysterious height of the steroid era. Gonzo in particular - 26 HR more than his next-highest total? 165 points better in OPS than his next highest? These are not just fluke numbers. Boone isn't nearly as bad, but upping all of your stats by 33% all in the same year? Sounds fishy. Or maybe we should just play the right way, like Aaron's brother, Bret Boone? (career average of 20 HR, then has 37 and 35 in 2001 and 2003, respectively....and is mysteriously out of baseball only 2 years removed from a .535 SLG once steroid testing was implemented)
But enough of that. How about some analysis at the quarter point in the season?
Here were my standings from the beginning of the season:
NL West: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants
NL Central: Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates
NL East: Mets, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays (although not far back), Orioles
AL Central: Tigers, Indians, Twins, Royals, White Sox
AL West: Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Oakland
So who was I way off on?
Rockies were supposed to be good. Not quite as good as the run at the end of last season, but superior to the rest of a bad division. I was way off - this team is terrible.
Cardinals were terrible on paper. And are somehow scraping things together to get some wins. I am 100% not sold on this team. It's offense is Pujols and that's it, they don't have a closer, and their rotation consists of a bunch of guys that literally nobody has ever heard of. I think I will be right in the long runon them.
Marlins are still performing way over their heads. THey have literally no starting pitching to speak of and are currently getting lucky. No way does Dan Uggla hit .350 all year. No way does Mike Jacobs hit 45 HR. No way is Hanley really this good. Ok wait, that last one might be accurate.
The Blue Jays are really struggling, mostly becaue of a weak offense. Vernon Wells is hurt, they got rid of Frank Thomas, and a bunch of other guys are performing well below expectations. The pitching is very strong, though.
White Sox and Tigers. I had these teams reversed, and it was surprising. I thought Ozzie Guillen was a loose canon, and I was right. I also had Justin Verlander as my Cy Young...and I was way off. An ERA over 6 doesn't win the lumber? Oh, and I had Miguel Cabrera as my AL MVP. Not quite.
Oakland, like the Marlins, are performing over expectations. THey are going to trade away any talent they have and will be a last place team when all is said and doe.
The Mariners are terrible. Bedard is hurt, they have no offense, F-Her is performing way below expectations, and just about everything that could go wrong has.
....And I had John Maine as my NL Cy Young. Again, not quite, although he isn't pitching THAT bad.
But for the most part, I have been pretty spot on. Not bad. Not bad at all.
Now some suprises, disappointments, and should-have-seen-it-comings:
Top suprise has to be Cliff Lee. This was a guy who spent some of last year in AAA. Now he leads the AL in ERA. Prior to this weekend, he had an ERA under 1, with 44 Ks to 4 BBs. Those are like little league numbers. He will come back down to earth, but even then, this is a ridiculously good season for him.
Carlos Quentin is absolutely mashing. He was involved in a deal with the D-backs in the off season and is leading the AL in HRs right now. Like Lee, he will calm down, but even if he is an average player from this point forth, he still had a great season.
Edinson Voloquez was the guy who was traded for Josh Hamilton. A 24-year old fireballer in the Texas system, he never had the chance to flourish. Unlike Cliff Lee, this kid is legit. His strikeouts and HRs allowed are mind-boggling, as is that MLB-best ERA of 1.2 or so. Kid is a beast. He was a top prospect that didn't develop fast enough for the Rangers and now he has the opportunity. As long as Dusty Baker doesn't kill him, he should have a really impressive year.
The Cardinals survivng on that pitching is a big shock. Ankiel just got hurt, though, and Isringhausen relinquished the closer role due to his recent inability to get anyone out. Although not a great team, they are much much better than I expected.
The Top Bust of 2008? Detroit Tigers. This was supposed to be a World Series team and instead is awful. We all knew the pitching was a bit questionable, but not this bad. The offense is really the shocker - this was supposed to be one of the best Os of all time, and instead has been shut out 8 times this year.
Ryan Howard still hits HRs, but his sub-.220 average isn't going to cut it. He is going to shatter his own K record this year. And for $10 million, thank you MLB arbitration.
Jimmy Rollins is a major disappointment. This guy played 162 games last year and was the MVP. This year he gets hurt in the first 2 weeks of the season and misses an entire month. Injuries are not an excuse.
The Padres are freaking terrible. They were going to be bad, but not this bad. Yuck.
The Rockies. (see above).
Verlander (see above).
The NL East hasn't lived up to the hype. There were supposd to be three truly elite teams in this division - The Mets, Phils, and Braves. Instead, they all middle around .500 while the MARLINS are in first place. And they're not all beating up on each other - these teams just aren't very good. The Mets lost 3 of 4 to the Nats last week, the Braves just lost 3 of 4 to the Pirates, and the Phillies lost 3 in a row to the Blue Jays and Nationals. They'll all storm back but age and injury has been a factor on all teams.
TRAVIS HAFNER. He isn't necessarily a bigger bust than some other players by performance, but he is because of the repeated lofty expectations for a guy who really isn't that good. Outside of his .306/42 HR 2006, he hasn't done anything noteworthy. Last year those .250/24 HR numbers should not have led to these expectations. I knew he wasn;t actually any good, but everyone else drank his bathwater, so i put him in the busts list. As of today, he is batting .228 with 4 HR through a quarter of the season. And throw Grady Sizemore into that boat too. Huge expectations but rarely performs. He has lost 20+ points on his batting average since 2006. He makes way too many outs for a leadoff man. And the greatest leadoff man in history, according to most projections.
Then, outside of the suprises and the busts, we have the should-have-seen-it-coming category.
Andruw Jones. This guy's numbers have been downright bad since he hit 50 HR in 2005. His average is always terrible, but now factor in a bigger ballpark, about 20 lbs of flab and no incentive of a big contract, and he had bad news written all over him. $18m for nothing.
Hafner goes in this category too. See above.
Zack Greinke. This kid was a major prospect a few years ago and was projected as an ace in 2005. Then he had mental breakdowns in 2006 and started the comeback in 2007. This kid is legit, and has been for a while. He isn't coming out of nowhere.
Barry Zito is terrible. Much like Jones, he was awarded a big contract despite being quite a few years since his last big season. 2002 Cy Young to the bullpen in 2008. Really a fall from grace for what seems like a genuinely nice guy. But he should just be thrilled he didn't end up on the Mets - the NY media would literally crucify him.
Johan Santana. Yes, he is an ace. Yes, he is having a fine year. Yes, he is a second half pitcher. But this was a guy who was going to win 20 games this season, without question. He was going to be so dominant it wouldn't even be funny. He was going to save the Mets from 2007's collapse. Instead, he is having a very good season, but is also on pace to give up 40 HR this year (way out in front of the league) and only has 4 wins. This isn't a Cy Young caliber season....yet. But this should have been expected - look at his numbers in Minnesota. The offenses in the AL Central and NL East are comparable, the parks are comparable, and he only has an ERA around 3 each year. This year included. And an ERA of 3 in the NL isn't winning the Cy Young.
Tampa Bay had the pieces there. Some were predicting 88 wins. We all should have seen this coming. Lots of good, young talent, a solid rotation, a good bullpen, and a competant manager = a decent team.
And the biggest of all: Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes sucking, and sucking badly. Nobody should have ever believed in these guys. Kennedy throws 88 and is a control pitcher with less than half a season under his belt. Hughes is a 21 year old kid who hasn't developed any secondary pitches that can be thrown for strikes, I don't care what scouting says. Neither of these guys was ready to face major league hitters on a full time basis and the Yankee propaganda machine prevented that news from being spread. This rotation was thin, and there's a reason Tampa is going to beat them into the playoffs this year.
And there you have it. Due to the wealth of content today, no video. Sorry.